Category Archives: Research

RSA Conference 2019, San Francisco – Overview and Conference Exhibitor quotes


One of the many RSA Conference Exhibitor Floors and IBM Security Keynote Session
Photo Credit – Bill Owen

 

By Bill Owen – TechNewsBlog.net

This will be Part One of a two-part series of quotes from key contacts from a number of the Exhibitors at the RSA Conference that was held on March 4th– 8th in San Francisco. Part Two will be posted next week.

 

Overview of Conference

There were approximately 42,500 attendees, over 700 Exhibitors and 740 speakers and many sessions and seminars to attend. I attended a number of sessions and they were very informative with key information to take away for many attendees, depending on your focus.

Along with the well-known cybersecurity companies, there were a host of up-and-coming companies making their mark in the space. The emergence of new companies comes from the development of new and exciting technologies and the shear demand/need for their existence. The Dept. of Homeland Security (both the Cybersecurity Communications and Science & Technology Divisions), Deloitte, FBI, Dell Technologies, Intel Corporation, IBM Security, Cisco Systems, Microsoft, NSA, Oracle, Symantec, McAfee, Unisys, VMware and many, many others were represented. A link to the Exhibitor list follows.

Resources

RSA Conference 2019, San Francisco key links:

Breakdown review of each day of the RSA Conference via the RSAC Editorial Team:

Commentary

As a review prior to the quotes, I have to say that this conference was a great experience, not only due to the high level of expertise of the people there, but the overall energy of the entire conference. There was an incredible amount of interaction between Exhibitors and Attendees. I personally found that the vast majority of company representatives, all the way through and including C-Suite executives, were engaging and very upbeat about what their company has to offer now and into the future. It was a level of excitement that I have not seen at a conference or trade show in some time. The fact that many were very open to supply quotes and provide their take was a testimony to the general environment there. It is an important time for the cybersecurity industry as a whole. As you will see from the following quotes, threats are a constant, but so is the focus and diligence of expert companies and personnel in combating them. I would like to thank all of the contributors for their input on the following quotes:

Exhibitor Quotes                                                        

The following is Part One of a two part series on quotes from key personnel at companies that I visited this year, regarding their take on the state of cybersecurity currently, and what their companies are focused on regarding mitigation of threats within their specialty area.

 

Gurucul

“You can steal an identity, but you can’t steal behavior. The key to predicting threats, especially unknown threats, is to monitor user and entity behavior – to recognize when that behavior starts being anomalous. Rules don’t catch changes in behavior patterns. Gurucul’s Behavior Based Security Analytics and Intelligence powered by machine learning on big data detects and stops malicious behavior before cyber criminals or rogue insiders can do harm.”

Jane Grafton, Vice President of Marketing – Gurucul
____________________________________________________________________________________

Keyfactor

“Crypto agility is absolutely critical to the enterprise in 2019. From rising concerns around data privacy, to the compliance challenges associated with legislation like GDPR, to the rise of connected devices – InfoSec teams have a lot to be accountable for. Companies clearly embrace encryption technology, but there’s an increasing need to handle encryption keys in a scalable and agile way. In fact, Keyfactor research shows that 71% of companies don’t even know how many keys or digital certs they have, which can result in massive outages, misuse and security holes. The need to manage keys in a seamless and automated way is evident in our findings. Threat vectors, such as advances in quantum computing, move the need for crypto agility to a priority for any organization.”

Chris Hickman, Chief Security Officer – Keyfactor
____________________________________________________________________________________

Sumo Logic

“There were over 700 exhibitors at RSA 2019, up from about 650 in 2018. With so many organizations moving to the cloud, it is surprising how many of these vendors are still taking a premise-based approach. Even many of the “cloud” solutions are just hosted versions of their appliances. Many of the visitors to our booth expressed frustration that these legacy solutions are blind to cloud applications and do not scale to meet their growing data requirements. Sumo Logic’s ability to provide visibility across local and cloud-based assets has made it invaluable as not only a development and operational tool, but also as an efficient investigation and alerting tool for security teams.”

—Roger Shepard, Head of Global Security Partner Sales- Sumo Logic

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OneLogin

“The growth and application of artificial intelligence and machine learning were major trending topics throughout the conference, which coincided perfectly with our recent study on Dynamic Marketplaces. With more organizations making their move to the cloud, the modern workplace grows increasingly complex. This means the role of the CIO will continue to evolve; 97% of CIOs we interviewed said the most successful professionals in their role will have made the transition from delivering technology to driving business value across their organizations. We shared these insights — and what this means for the future of work — from our booth, bringing OneLogin’s industry-leading access management solutions to the forefront.”

—Miles Kelly, Chief Marketing Officer- OneLogin
____________________________________________________________________________________

Carbon Black

“Cybersecurity continues to be a work in progress. Organizations need to invest in the people, processes and technology to truly remain secure long term. Attackers will continue to change tactics and techniques to thwart and bypass traditional defensive tools deployed across the globe. Organizations need to become more proactive by ensuring they have the right technology to see the behaviors behind these ever shifting attacks and move to disrupt them.”

—Rick McElroy, Head of Security Strategy – Carbon Black
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McAfee

“Cybersecurity is a challenge for organizations of all sizes today. The threat landscape continues to grow in scope and sophistication while security operations centers (SOC) struggle to keep up with staffing requirements to manage alerts. In order to overcome these obstacles, organizations need to augment their SOCs with forward looking security tools that embrace human machine teaming through the combination of data, threat behavior and human analysis. By combining data with the right analysts, organizations can begin to get the upper hand on attackers.”

—Grant Bourzikas, CISO and VP, Data Science Applied Research, McAfee
____________________________________________________________________________________

Bitdefender

“Ransomware has become one of the most important threats to business in the past 5 years, and over 70 percent of CIOs fear their businesses are vulnerable to it. Crypto-ransomware operators are now moving away from the consumer space and into business-critical systems. Hospitals, managed service providers, education and telecommunications providers are now the top target for ransomware. GandCrab, which is the most prevalent ransomware family in the wild to date, asks for payment of up to $7000,000 per compromised server. Layered technologies to defend against ransomware, fast patching cycles and network isolation are key to business continuity in the new threat landscape.”

—Bogdan “Bob” BOTEZATU, Director of Threat Research & Reporting – Bitdefender
____________________________________________________________________________________

Utimaco

Key Management and Identity Management are a dramatic concern for CISOs. Key Management and securing the Root-of-Trust is their biggest headache as Phishing and Identity-related attacks are the biggest attack vector in enterprises today. Time and time again people fall victim to these attacks without adequate security mechanisms in place, relying on security Band-Aids for issues that dedicated hardware-based security can solve. You don’t leave your car keys in your car, which is why you shouldn’t leave your secrets and private keys next to your encrypted data, but rather store them in tamper-evident and intrusion-resistant Hardware Security Module (HSM). Providing the highest level of physical security for your most valuable data assets is at the heart of what we do at Utimaco.

—Malte Pollmann, Chief Strategy Officer– Utimaco
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Arctic Wolf Networks

“Mid-market enterprises continue to struggle to locate and retain talent needed for security operations. CIOs and CISOs recognize that having a security operations center (SOC) is a best practice, but the eight to 12 analysts that Gartner estimates you need for 24×7 coverage is beyond the means of most enterprises. You are seeing a move towards services that combine people, process and technology in a concierge way to achieve better security outcomes using fewer resources.  For managed detection and response, Arctic Wolf recently added vulnerability assessment to our portfolio so we can now identify vulnerabilities in addition to our SOC-as-a-service for detecting and responding to threats.”

—Brian NeSmith, President & CEO– Arctic Wolf Networks
____________________________________________________________________________________

Fidelis Cybersecurity 

“The current state of cybersecurity is weakened by too many bolt on tools addressing one-off issues – the result is a cumbersome stack of technologies that don’t talk to each other, causing operational fatigue, lack of data visibility and correlation and ultimately real threats being missed.

Fidelis helps organizations mitigate known and unknown threats with Network, Endpoint, and Deception solutions that are tightly integrated into a unified platform, as well as with external vendor solutions. Services are also available on top of point products, including Managed Detection and Response, customized/tailored threat intelligence, and data science. The result is deep visibility across the entire cyber terrain to facilitate fast and efficient threat hunting and detection and response capabilities.”

—Tim Roddy, Vice President, Product Management and Product Marketing – Fidelis Cybersecurity

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Note: Here is a link to an article authored by Brian NeSmith, President & CEO of Arctic Wolf Networks (quote above) back on Dec. 28, 2018 for Forbes: Cybersecurity Predictions For 2019 that I noted in a previous blog on Feb. 1, 2019: Cybersecurity, What Is It And What Does It Mean To Me?  His article offers clarity on areas of cybersecurity and the implications that need to be considered.

AI and the Future of Work

Getty Images

Partner Content – WIRED Insider
By WIRED Brand Lab for Accenture

 

While no one knows what artificial intelligence’s effect on work will be, we can all agree on one thing: it’s disruptive. So far, many have cast that disruption in a negative light and projected a future in which robots take jobs from human workers.

That’s one way to look at it. Another is that automation may create more jobs than it displaces. By offering new tools for entrepreneurs, it may also create new lines of business that we can’t imagine now.

A recent study from Redwood Software and Sapio Research underscores this view. Participants in the 2017 study said they believe that 60 percent of businesses can be automated in the next five years.

On the other hand, Gartner predicts that by 2020 AI will produce more jobs than it displaces. Dennis Mortensen, CEO and founder of x.ai, maker of AI-based virtual assistant Amy, agreed. “I look at our firm and two-thirds of the jobs here didn’t exist a few years ago,” said Mortensen.

In addition to creating new jobs, AI will also help people do their jobs better — a lot better. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Paul Daugherty, Accenture’s Chief Technology and Innovation Officer summed this idea up as, “Human plus machine equals superpowers.”

For many reasons, the optimistic view is likely the more realistic one. But AI’s ability to transform work is far from preordained. In 2018, workers are not being adequately prepared for their futures. The algorithms and data that underlie AI are also flawed and don’t reflect the diverse society it’s meant to serve.

How AI Could Grow Jobs: Inventing New Ones, Empowering Existing Ones

While AI will certainly displace some jobs, such displacement has occurred long before AI was on the scene. In the past century, we’ve seen the demise or diminishment of titles like travel agent, switchboard operator, milkman, elevator operator and bowling alley pinsetter. Meanwhile, new titles like app developer, social media director, and data scientist have emerged.

Daugherty and Jim Wilson, managing director of Information Technology and Business Research at Accenture Research have co-authored a book titled Human+Machine: Reimagining Work in the Age of AI. In their view, future (and current) jobs include trainers and explainers. Trainers will teach AI systems how to perform and mimic human behaviors. Explainers will liaise between machines and human supervisors.

Trainers

Chatbots have recently emerged as a new communications conduit for brands and consumers. It’s no secret though that they have often been stiff and offered inappropriate responses. For instance, we might say “It’s raining again. Great,” and humans would recognize the sarcasm. A machine wouldn’t.

Understanding language is one component of perfecting chatbots. Another is empathy. A new wave of startups is injecting the emotional intelligence into chatbot-based communication.

Eugenia Kuyda, cofounder of Replika, said empathetic chatbots like hers rely on human trainers. “In the future I think one of the most interesting areas of knowledge will be knowing human behavior and psychology,” she said. “You have to build chatbots in a way that makes people happy and want to achieve their goals. Without a certain amount of empathy, it’s not going to happen.”

In addition, companies like Facebook and Google use humans to moderate content. Facebook currently employs around 7,500 people for this purpose. Google parent company Alphabet also recently said it planned to have 10,000 people moderating YouTube content.

Explainers

Trainers bring a human element to AI systems, but “explainers” will bridge the gap between the new systems and their human managers.

C-suite executives, for instance, will be uneasy about basing decisions on “black box” algorithms. They will need explanations in plain English — delivered by a human — to ease their concerns.

Legislation is another impetus. The European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation, which goes into effect this year, includes the “right to explanation.” That means consumers can question and fight any decision made on an algorithmic base that affects them.

Such explainers will perform “autopsies” when the machines make mistakes. They will also diagnose the error and help to take steps to avoid similar mistakes in the future.

Empowering Workers, Businesses and Industries

Rather than replacing workers, AI can be a tool to help employees work better. A call center employee, for instance, can get instant intelligence about what the caller needs and do their work faster and better. That goes for businesses and industry too. In another example, in life sciences, Accenture is using deep learning and neural networks to help companies to bring treatments to market faster.

In addition to helping existing businesses, AI can create new ones. Such new business include digital-based elder care, AI-based agriculture and AI-based monitoring of sales calls.

Finally, automation can be used to fill currently unfilled jobs. As Daugherty noted recently, there is a shortage of 150,000 truck drivers in the U.S. right now. “We need automation to improve the productivity of the drivers, the lifestyle of the drivers to attract more people to the industry,” he said.

Changes We Need To Make Today

It will likely take a decade or so until some AI technologies become the norm. While that provides plenty of lead time for the transition, few companies are taking action now to train their workers. Another little-noticed problem is that the AI systems themselves are being created with data and algorithms that don’t reflect the diverse American society.

Regarding the former, Accenture research shows business leaders don’t think that their workers are ready for AI. But only 3% of those leaders were reinvesting in training. At a Davos meeting held by Accenture, Fei-Fei Li, an associate professor at Stanford University and director of the school’s AI lab, suggested using AI to retrain workers. “I think there’s a really exciting possibility that machine learning itself would help us to learn in more effective ways and to re-skill workers in more effective ways,” she said. “And I personally would like to see more investment and thought going into that aspect.”

Another issue to address in 2018 is the lack of diversity among the companies creating AI. As Li noted, this lack of diversity “is a bias itself.” Recent research from MIT has underscored this point. MIT Media Lab researcher Joy Buolamwini said she found evidence that facial recognition systems recognizing white faces better than black faces. In particular, the study found that if the photo was of a white man, the systems guessed correctly more than 99 percent of the time. But for black women, the percentage as between 20 percent and 34 percent. Such biases have implications for the use of facial recognition for law enforcement, advertising and hiring.

As such research illustrates, AI may present itself as an alien force of disruption, but it’s actually a human invention that reflects its creator’s flaws and humanity. “The effect of AI on jobs is totally, absolutely within our control,” Cathy Bessant, chief operations and chief technology officer, Bank of America, said in her Davos chat. “This isn’t what we let AI do to the workforce, it’s how we control its use to the good of the workforce.”

This story was produced by the WIRED Brand Lab for Accenture.

How we’ll invent the future, by Bill Gates – 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2019 (Part 2, The List)

By Bill Gates for MIT Technology Review – February 27, 2019

As well as his introductory essay, read Bill Gates’ conversation with Editor-In-Chief Gideon Lichfield. Below are his picks for the 10 Breakthrough Technologies:

Robot dexterity

Nicolas Ortega
Robot dexterity
  • Why it matters If robots could learn to deal with the messiness of the real world, they could do many more tasks.
  • Key Players OpenAI
    Carnegie Mellon University
    University of Michigan
    UC Berkeley
  • Availability 3-5 years

Robots are teaching themselves to handle the physical world.

For all the talk about machines taking jobs, industrial robots are still clumsy and inflexible. A robot can repeatedly pick up a component on an assembly line with amazing precision and without ever getting bored—but move the object half an inch, or replace it with something slightly different, and the machine will fumble ineptly or paw at thin air.

But while a robot can’t yet be programmed to figure out how to grasp any object just by looking at it, as people do, it can now learn to manipulate the object on its own through virtual trial and error.

One such project is Dactyl, a robot that taught itself to flip a toy building block in its fingers. Dactyl, which comes from the San Francisco nonprofit OpenAI, consists of an off-the-shelf robot hand surrounded by an array of lights and cameras. Using what’s known as reinforcement learning, neural-network software learns how to grasp and turn the block within a simulated environment before the hand tries it out for real. The software experiments, randomly at first, strengthening connections within the network over time as it gets closer to its goal.

It usually isn’t possible to transfer that type of virtual practice to the real world, because things like friction or the varied properties of different materials are so difficult to simulate. The OpenAI team got around this by adding randomness to the virtual training, giving the robot a proxy for the messiness of reality.

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We’ll need further breakthroughs for robots to master the advanced dexterity needed in a real warehouse or factory. But if researchers can reliably employ this kind of learning, robots might eventually assemble our gadgets, load our dishwashers, and even help Grandma out of bed. —Will Knight

New-wave nuclear power

Bob Mumgaard/Plasma Science and Fusion Center/MIT

Advanced fusion and fission reactors are edging closer to reality.

New nuclear designs that have gained momentum in the past year are promising to make this power source safer and cheaper. Among them are generation IV fission reactors, an evolution of traditional designs; small modular reactors; and fusion reactors, a technology that has seemed eternally just out of reach. Developers of generation IV fission designs, such as Canada’s Terrestrial Energy and Washington-based TerraPower, have entered into R&D partnerships with utilities, aiming for grid supply (somewhat optimistically, maybe) by the 2020s.

Small modular reactors typically produce in the tens of megawatts of power (for comparison, a traditional nuclear reactor produces around 1,000 MW). Companies like Oregon’s NuScale say the miniaturized reactors can save money and reduce environmental and financial risks.

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There has even been progress on fusion. Though no one expects delivery before 2030, companies like General Fusion and Commonwealth Fusion Systems, an MIT spinout, are making some headway. Many consider fusion a pipe dream, but because the reactors can’t melt down and don’t create long-lived, high-level waste, it should face much less public resistance than conventional nuclear. (Bill Gates is an investor in TerraPower and Commonwealth Fusion Systems.) —Leigh Phillips

Predicting preemies

Nenov | Getty
Predicting preemies
  • Why it matters 15 million babies are born prematurely every year; it’s the leading cause of death for children under age five
  • Key player Akna Dx
  • Availability A test could be offered in doctor’s offices within five years

A simple blood test can predict if a pregnant woman is at risk of giving birth prematurely.

Our genetic material lives mostly inside our cells. But small amounts of “cell-free” DNA and RNA also float in our blood, often released by dying cells. In pregnant women, that cell-free material is an alphabet soup of nucleic acids from the fetus, the placenta, and the mother.

Stephen Quake, a bioengineer at Stanford, has found a way to use that to tackle one of medicine’s most intractable problems: the roughly one in 10 babies born prematurely.

Free-floating DNA and RNA can yield information that previously required invasive ways of grabbing cells, such as taking a biopsy of a tumor or puncturing a pregnant woman’s belly to perform an amniocentesis. What’s changed is that it’s now easier to detect and sequence the small amounts of cell-free genetic material in the blood. In the last few years researchers have begun developing blood tests for cancer (by spotting the telltale DNA from tumor cells) and for prenatal screening of conditions like Down syndrome.

The tests for these conditions rely on looking for genetic mutations in the DNA. RNA, on the other hand, is the molecule that regulates gene expression—how much of a protein is produced from a gene. By sequencing the free-floating RNA in the mother’s blood, Quake can spot fluctuations in the expression of seven genes that he singles out as associated with preterm birth. That lets him identify women likely to deliver too early. Once alerted, doctors can take measures to stave off an early birth and give the child a better chance of survival.

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The technology behind the blood test, Quake says, is quick, easy, and less than $10 a measurement. He and his collaborators have launched a startup, Akna Dx, to commercialize it. —Bonnie Rochman

Gut probe in a pill

Bruce Peterson
Gut probe in a pill
  • Why it matters The device makes it easier to screen for and study gut diseases, including one that keeps millions of children in poor countries from growing properly
  • Key player Massachusetts General Hospital
  • Availability Now used in adults; testing in infants begins in 2019

A small, swallowable device captures detailed images of the gut without anesthesia, even in infants and children.

Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) may be one of the costliest diseases you’ve never heard of. Marked by inflamed intestines that are leaky and absorb nutrients poorly, it’s widespread in poor countries and is one reason why many people there are malnourished, have developmental delays, and never reach a normal height. No one knows exactly what causes EED and how it could be prevented or treated.

Practical screening to detect it would help medical workers know when to intervene and how. Therapies are already available for infants, but diagnosing and studying illnesses in the guts of such young children often requires anesthetizing them and inserting a tube called an endoscope down the throat. It’s expensive, uncomfortable, and not practical in areas of the world where EED is prevalent.

So Guillermo Tearney, a pathologist and engineer at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) in Boston, is developing small devices that can be used to inspect the gut for signs of EED and even obtain tissue biopsies. Unlike endoscopes, they are simple to use at a primary care visit.

Tearney’s swallowable capsules contain miniature microscopes. They’re attached to a flexible string-like tether that provides power and light while sending images to a briefcase-like console with a monitor. This lets the health-care worker pause the capsule at points of interest and pull it out when finished, allowing it to be sterilized and reused. (Though it sounds gag-­inducing, Tearney’s team has developed a technique that they say doesn’t cause discomfort.) It can also carry technologies that image the entire surface of the digestive tract at the resolution of a single cell or capture three-dimensional cross sections a couple of millimeters deep.

The technology has several applications; at MGH it’s being used to screen for Barrett’s esophagus, a precursor of esophageal cancer. For EED, Tearney’s team has developed an even smaller version for use in infants who can’t swallow a pill. It’s been tested on adolescents in Pakistan, where EED is prevalent, and infant testing is planned for 2019.

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The little probe will help researchers answer questions about EED’s development—such as which cells it affects and whether bacteria are involved—and evaluate interventions and potential treatments. —Courtney Humphries

Custom cancer vaccines

Paper Boat Creative | Getty
Custom Cancer Vaccines
  • Why it matters Conventional chemotherapies take a heavy toll on healthy cells and aren’t always effective against tumors
  • Key players BioNTech
    Genentech
  • Availability In human testing

The treatment incites the body’s natural defenses to destroy only cancer cells by identifying mutations unique to each tumor

Scientists are on the cusp of commercializing the first personalized cancer vaccine. If it works as hoped, the vaccine, which triggers a person’s immune system to identify a tumor by its unique mutations, could effectively shut down many types of cancers.

By using the body’s natural defenses to selectively destroy only tumor cells, the vaccine, unlike conventional chemotherapies, limits damage to healthy cells. The attacking immune cells could also be vigilant in spotting any stray cancer cells after the initial treatment.

The possibility of such vaccines began to take shape in 2008, five years after the Human Genome Project was completed, when geneticists published the first sequence of a cancerous tumor cell.

Soon after, investigators began to compare the DNA of tumor cells with that of healthy cells—and other tumor cells. These studies confirmed that all cancer cells contain hundreds if not thousands of specific mutations, most of which are unique to each tumor.

A few years later, a German startup called BioNTech provided compelling evidence that a vaccine containing copies of these mutations could catalyze the body’s immune system to produce T cells primed to seek out, attack, and destroy all cancer cells harboring them.

In December 2017, BioNTech began a large test of the vaccine in cancer patients, in collaboration with the biotech giant Genentech. The ongoing trial is targeting at least 10 solid cancers and aims to enroll upwards of 560 patients at sites around the globe.

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The two companies are designing new manufacturing techniques to produce thousands of personally customized vaccines cheaply and quickly. That will be tricky because creating the vaccine involves performing a biopsy on the patient’s tumor, sequencing and analyzing its DNA, and rushing that information to the production site. Once produced, the vaccine needs to be promptly delivered to the hospital; delays could be deadly. —Adam Piore

The cow-free burger

Bruce Peterson/Styling: Monica Mariano
The cow-free burger
  • Why it matters Livestock production causes catastrophic deforestation, water pollution, and greenhouse-gas emissions
  • Key players Beyond Meat
    Impossible Foods
  • Availability Plant-based now; lab-grown around 2020

Both lab-grown and plant-based alternatives approximate the taste and nutritional value of real meat without the environmental devastation.

The UN expects the world to have 9.8 billion people by 2050. And those people are getting richer. Neither trend bodes well for climate change—especially because as people escape poverty, they tend to eat more meat.

By that date, according to the predictions, humans will consume 70% more meat than they did in 2005. And it turns out that raising animals for human consumption is among the worst things we do to the environment.

Depending on the animal, producing a pound of meat protein with Western industrialized methods requires 4 to 25 times more water, 6 to 17 times more land, and 6 to 20 times more fossil fuels than producing a pound of plant protein.

The problem is that people aren’t likely to stop eating meat anytime soon. Which means lab-grown and plant-based alternatives might be the best way to limit the destruction.

Making lab-grown meat involves extracting muscle tissue from animals and growing it in bioreactors. The end product looks much like what you’d get from an animal, although researchers are still working on the taste. Researchers at Maastricht University in the Netherlands, who are working to produce lab-grown meat at scale, believe they’ll have a lab-grown burger available by next year. One drawback of lab-grown meat is that the environmental benefits are still sketchy at best—a recent World Economic Forum report says the emissions from lab-grown meat would be only around 7% less than emissions from beef production.

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The better environmental case can be made for plant-based meats from companies like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods (Bill Gates is an investor in both companies), which use pea proteins, soy, wheat, potatoes, and plant oils to mimic the texture and taste of animal meat.

Beyond Meat has a new 26,000-square-foot (2,400-square-meter) plant in California and has already sold upwards of 25 million burgers from 30,000 stores and restaurants. According to an analysis by the Center for Sustainable Systems at the University of Michigan, a Beyond Meat patty would probably generate 90% less in greenhouse-gas emissions than a conventional burger made from a cow. —Markkus Rovito

Carbon dioxide catcher

Nico Ortega
Carbon dioxide catcher
  • Why it matters Removing CO2 from the atmosphere might be one of the last viable ways to stop catastrophic climate change
  • Key players Carbon Engineering
    Climeworks
    Global Thermostat
  • Availability 5-10 years

Practical and affordable ways to capture carbon dioxide from the air can soak up excess greenhouse-gas emissions.

Even if we slow carbon dioxide emissions, the warming effect of the greenhouse gas can persist for thousands of years. To prevent a dangerous rise in temperatures, the UN’s climate panel now concludes, the world will need to remove as much as 1 trillion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere this century.

In a surprise finding last summer, Harvard climate scientist David Keith calculated that machines could, in theory, pull this off for less than $100 a ton, through an approach known as direct air capture. That’s an order of magnitude cheaper than earlier estimates that led many scientists to dismiss the technology as far too expensive—though it will still take years for costs to fall to anywhere near that level.

But once you capture the carbon, you still need to figure out what to do with it.

Carbon Engineering, the Canadian startup Keith cofounded in 2009, plans to expand its pilot plant to ramp up production of its synthetic fuels, using the captured carbon dioxide as a key ingredient. (Bill Gates is an investor in Carbon Engineering.)

Zurich-based Climeworks’s direct air capture plant in Italy will produce methane from captured carbon dioxide and hydrogen, while a second plant in Switzerland will sell carbon dioxide to the soft-drinks industry. So will Global Thermostat of New York, which finished constructing its first commercial plant in Alabama last year.

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Still, if it’s used in synthetic fuels or sodas, the carbon dioxide will mostly end up back in the atmosphere. The ultimate goal is to lock greenhouse gases away forever. Some could be nested within products like carbon fiber, polymers, or concrete, but far more will simply need to be buried underground, a costly job that no business model seems likely to support.

In fact, pulling CO2 out of the air is, from an engineering perspective, one of the most difficult and expensive ways of dealing with climate change. But given how slowly we’re reducing emissions, there are no good options left. —James Temple

An ECG on your wrist

Bruce Peterson

Regulatory approval and technological advances are making it easier for people to continuously monitor their hearts with wearable devices.

Fitness trackers aren’t serious medical devices. An intense workout or loose band can mess with the sensors that read your pulse. But an electrocardiogram—the kind doctors use to diagnose abnormalities before they cause a stroke or heart attack— requires a visit to a clinic, and people often fail to take the test in time.

ECG-enabled smart watches, made possible by new regulations and innovations in hardware and software, offer the convenience of a wearable device with something closer to the precision of a medical one.

An Apple Watch–compatible band from Silicon Valley startup AliveCor that can detect atrial fibrillation, a frequent cause of blood clots and stroke, received clearance from the FDA in 2017. Last year, Apple released its own FDA-cleared ECG feature, embedded in the watch itself.

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The health-device company Withings also announced plans for an ECG-equipped watch shortly after.
Current wearables still employ only a single sensor, whereas a real ECG has 12. And no wearable can yet detect a heart attack as it’s happening.

But this might change soon. Last fall, AliveCor presented preliminary results to the American Heart Association on an app and two-­sensor system that can detect a certain type of heart attack. —Karen Hao

Sanitation without sewers

TheDman | Getty
Sanitation without sewers
  • Why it matters 2.3 billion people lack safe sanitation, and many die as a result
  • Key players Duke University
    University of South Florida
    Biomass Controls
    California Institute of Technology
  • Availability 1-2 years

Energy-efficient toilets can operate without a sewer system and treat waste on the spot.

About 2.3 billion people don’t have good sanitation. The lack of proper toilets encourages people to dump fecal matter into nearby ponds and streams, spreading bacteria, viruses, and parasites that can cause diarrhea and cholera. Diarrhea causes one in nine child deaths worldwide.

Now researchers are working to build a new kind of toilet that’s cheap enough for the developing world and can not only dispose of waste but treat it as well.

In 2011 Bill Gates created what was essentially the X Prize in this area—the Reinvent the Toilet Challenge. Since the contest’s launch, several teams have put prototypes in the field. All process the waste locally, so there’s no need for large amounts of water to carry it to a distant treatment plant.

Most of the prototypes are self-contained and don’t need sewers, but they look like traditional toilets housed in small buildings or storage containers. The NEWgenerator toilet, designed at the University of South Florida, filters out pollutants with an anaerobic membrane, which has pores smaller than bacteria and viruses. Another project, from Connecticut-based Biomass Controls, is a refinery the size of a shipping container; it heats the waste to produce a carbon-rich material that can, among other things, fertilize soil.

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One drawback is that the toilets don’t work at every scale. The Biomass Controls product, for example, is designed primarily for tens of thousands of users per day, which makes it less well suited for smaller villages. Another system, developed at Duke University, is meant to be used only by a few nearby homes.

So the challenge now is to make these toilets cheaper and more adaptable to communities of different sizes. “It’s great to build one or two units,” says Daniel Yeh, an associate professor at the University of South Florida, who led the NEWgenerator team. “But to really have the technology impact the world, the only way to do that is mass-produce the units.” —Erin Winick

Smooth-talking AI assistants

Bruce Peterson
Smooth-talking AI assistants
  • Why it matters AI assistants can now perform conversation-based tasks like booking a restaurant reservation or coordinating a package drop-off rather than just obey simple commands
  • Key players Google
    Alibaba
    Amazon
  • Availability 1-2 years

New techniques that capture semantic relationships between words are making machines better at understanding natural language.

We’re used to AI assistants—Alexa playing music in the living room, Siri setting alarms on your phone—but they haven’t really lived up to their alleged smarts. They were supposed to have simplified our lives, but they’ve barely made a dent. They recognize only a narrow range of directives and are easily tripped up by deviations.

But some recent advances are about to expand your digital assistant’s repertoire. In June 2018, researchers at OpenAI developed a technique that trains an AI on unlabeled text to avoid the expense and time of categorizing and tagging all the data manually. A few months later, a team at Google unveiled a system called BERT that learned how to predict missing words by studying millions of sentences. In a multiple-choice test, it did as well as humans at filling in gaps.

These improvements, coupled with better speech synthesis, are letting us move from giving AI assistants simple commands to having conversations with them. They’ll be able to deal with daily minutiae like taking meeting notes, finding information, or shopping online.

Some are already here. Google Duplex, the eerily human-like upgrade of Google Assistant, can pick up your calls to screen for spammers and telemarketers. It can also make calls for you to schedule restaurant reservations or salon appointments.

In China, consumers are getting used to Alibaba’s AliMe, which coordinates package deliveries over the phone and haggles about the price of goods over chat.

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But while AI programs have gotten better at figuring out what you want, they still can’t understand a sentence. Lines are scripted or generated statistically, reflecting how hard it is to imbue machines with true language understanding. Once we cross that hurdle, we’ll see yet another evolution, perhaps from logistics coordinator to babysitter, teacher—or even friend? —Karen Hao

The power of “and”

Former GM executive Larry Burns discusses how Detroit and Silicon Valley both look to have critical roles in the future of mobility

By Dennis Pankratz, Research Manager, Center for Integrated Research, Deloitte Services LP for Deloitte Insights

Auto executive and adviser Larry Burns sees the future of mobility filled with driverless cars, with a wide range of customers, uses, and market segments—and plenty of room for innovation in both Detroit and Silicon Valley.

Few people are as deeply familiar with both the automotive industry and the technology community as Larry Burns, who spent more than three decades at General Motors, ultimately serving as corporate vice president for research, development, and planning. He is also an academic and a longtime adviser to Waymo, Alphabet’s self-driving car program. Burns’ recent book, Autonomy, offers an inside account of the efforts to develop self-driving vehicles.1 In a wide-ranging discussion, he shared his views about the future of mobility.

Derek Pankratz: You’ve been thinking about changes in transportation for a long time. Looking back at what you believed or expected 10 or 15 years ago, what has surprised you?

Larry Burns: There were a couple of really big surprises. When we finished the [Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA] Urban Challenge in 2007,2 we asked the head of DARPA, “What’s next?” And he said, “Well, you’ve proven this is viable. It’s really up to the commercial sector to run with it.” So all of us expected that everyone would be knocking on the doors of these young engineers to go make driverless cars happen—and quite honestly, except for Google launching its self-driving car program in 2009, very little happened. I was really surprised that the commercial sector didn’t jump at it. So I’d say my biggest surprise was how long it took for a lot of people to accept that this was real and was possible, especially the auto industry, which is so significantly impacted by what’s going on. And now there’s this stampede. Suddenly everybody’s an expert.

One other thing in terms of my own journey. When I left GM, I went to Columbia University and led a program for sustainable mobility. We looked at what you could do with a driverless, electric, shared vehicle model, and the results were pretty remarkable in terms of the number of vehicles required and the cost per mile.3 But the reality is there are almost 200 million cars and trucks in the United States,4 and a lot of people who want to have their own. So I’ve given thought to the idea of an autonomous vehicle that can be personal-use as well as shared-use, because I think the future is going to be both of those.

DP: It’s an interesting challenge. I know Deloitte’s surveys suggest that the biggest reservation people have about shared mobility is exactly that: It’s the issue of personal space and not wanting to share a confined area with somebody else.5

LB: I don’t think people will be owning their car like we do today—I expect it will be more like a lease or subscription. If you have an autonomous vehicle for your own personal use, you’ll likely want to be picked up at your door and dropped off at your door. And you won’t want to be hassled with parking your vehicle—you’ll want that vehicle to be smart enough to go somewhere and refuel or recharge and wait for you. I think that vehicle would get a lot more usage than my personal car now: When I arrive at work, it drops me off at the door, and then I could dispatch it in the middle of the day to go pick up my dry cleaning, and I could dispatch it again to go get takeout dinner and then go pick up my kids and then pick me up at work and take me back home. This whole world of a robotic personal valet is very intriguing to me; I think it’s going to eliminate the need for owning a second and third car initially and, ultimately, owning a car altogether.

Some worry that additional road miles from both shared and personal usage will cause more congestion, but for those people who are taking trips they couldn’t before—due to their age or a disability, for example—and are now able to participate more in society and the economy, that’s a good thing. We should be celebrating those miles. It’s also worth keeping in mind that if vehicles are operated as a fleet, you’re going to be optimizing the use of that fleet. Ride-hailing providers don’t operate like a fleet—they are a bunch of individual agents trying to get matched up with a ride. Our work at Columbia showed that you want to simultaneously have very high fleet utilization and very low empty miles—miles with no passengers in the car. The business reality of fleet management will help us on the congestion front.

DP: I think about that personal-valet model a lot. I live in a fairly rural area in Colorado where a shared fleet model doesn’t seem to make sense. There are all of these small and medium towns where it’s hard to see how you get the utilization to make it worthwhile, so the dedicated-use approach seems natural.

LB: Fifty-three percent of Americans say they live in suburbs, and 21 percent in those rural towns that you’re talking about, which is a nontrivial slice of the population. And that’s what’s so exciting about the future autonomous electric vehicle market. There are going to be a lot of market segments, and that provides great opportunities for innovative companies to define their brands, find their niches, and deliver real value tailored to those opportunities.

DP: You briefly mentioned electric vehicles. When you were working on the AUTOnomy concept car at GM in the early 2000s, you built around hydrogen fuel cells.6 My impression today is that there is a lot more activity around battery electric vehicles. Any thoughts on the pros and cons of those two different types of power sources and their future prospects?

LB: If I could change one thing in my public rhetoric in my role at GM, I probably would never have uttered the words fuel cell. I would have called it a hydrogen battery instead, because to be honest, they’re very similar. And progress on hydrogen storage, production, and distribution and fuel cells has been very impressive. Germany just announced that it’s going to have trains operating on hydrogen fuel cells,7 and there are over-the-road trucks being developed that use hydrogen fuel cells.8 So I think this is not battery or fuel cell. I think it’s an and. You’re going to have a lot of synergy in the propulsion system around that and; depending on which market you’re dealing with, hydrogen and fuel cells are going to find their role.

DP: That and point is really interesting, because it’s always presented as one versus the other.

LB: One of my biggest lessons is the power of and. A lot of business leaders get trapped thinking they have to select between A or B. And they forget to ask the question, “What about A and B?” What I have found over the years is that “A and B” often beats A or B by themselves. I think it’s hugely important to find the power of and.

DP: Another topic that’s often posed as a dichotomy: the role of vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V], vehicle-to-infrastructure [V2I], and vehicle-to-everything [V2X] communication. Some people say it’s critical and we’ve got to have it in some form. Others say it’s actually superfluous, or that it would be nice to have but is too expensive and takes too long to build out, so we’re going to keep everything onboard the vehicle.

LB: It’s another beautiful example of the power of and. For two cars to talk to each other, both need to have enabling hardware and communications technology. For V2I, the infrastructure is pretty expensive to deploy. But in time, as we get to Gen-2, Gen-3 autonomous systems, I think you’re going to see V2V and V2I become a way to reduce cost and perhaps even improve performance. I’ve learned to never rule out any technology. I dedicated my book Autonomy to engineers. Engineers make what’s possible real; that’s what we do.

DP: Let’s talk about yet another apparent binary choice between developing advanced driver assist features like automatic emergency braking or lane departure correction, and aiming for “fully” autonomous systems that don’t anticipate a human taking control. How do you see Level 2 and 3 automation playing into this whole picture?9

LB: I’ve been an adviser to Waymo, Google’s self-driving car project, since January 2011, and they made a really important decision that they were going to develop autonomous systems for only where there’s no human involved at all. If our goal is to eliminate over 90 percent of crashes, we really need to go for Level 4 and Level 5, full autonomous. I believe the right thing to do is to get the driver out of the loop altogether: The situational-awareness challenge of asking someone to reengage in the driving task when they’ve been sitting there not driving for 20 or 30 minutes is a tougher problem to solve than getting the system to autonomously handle 99.99 … percent of the stuff that happens in the world. With that said, I think it’s useful to be developing emergency braking systems, full-speed adaptive cruise control, lane keeping, stability control. That’s been good for safety purposes. But at the end of the day, I believe the objective should be to get to Level 4, starting in a geo-fenced area that’s big enough to have commercial value.10

DP: It seems safe to say that you’re a believer in the opportunities around autonomous vehicles. What do you see as the biggest hurdles to widespread adoption? Is it technological, social, regulatory, or something else?

LB: My biggest fear is that people will make premature judgments about what we’re doing, whether out of fear or just not knowing. Have you had a chance to ride in a driverless car?

DP: I have.

LB: So you have a different experience than someone who hasn’t. My first ride on public roads was in late 2010. I engaged the system. My hands were shaking over the steering wheel. My feet were nervous over the pedals. But within five minutes, I was relaxed; I realized this car was doing everything I would do as a driver and even better. And I suddenly realized I had no desire to change lanes and try to get ahead of somebody in front of me because I had my time to myself. I think this is all about people understanding what’s possible in their lives and what’s possible with the technology. I worry about people coming to a premature judgment and therefore resisting. And I very much worry about players who have a strong vested interest in the existing roadway transportation system.

I’m not worrying about the technology—I have not seen anything come up yet that says we’ve hit the wall and that we can’t keep finding solutions to those driving challenges that are the most difficult that we face today as humans.

DP: It’s another and moment, although maybe one that could slow progress. You can imagine hesitance or uncertainty by the public combined with a variety of vested interests that are able to capitalize on a moment where there’s no broad popular support.

LB: It’s going to play out with a tipping point. There’s this tendency to want to look into the future to know how big it’s going to be and when, to predict market shares and penetrations. That’s impossible. I focus more on that magical moment when market value exceeds price and price exceeds cost. The technology is proven, the customer value is proven, the business opportunity is proven, the regulatory barriers are not there, and it becomes clear this is now just a question of scaling through a series of generational deployments. That magical moment is within a three-to-five-year window, unless these vested interests push back so hard that they slow things down.

DP: Related to the hurdles, I’m personally very interested in the psychology or sociology of car ownership, particularly in the United States. Car culture is deeply embedded in a lot of places. The car is more than just a way to get around—it’s a longstanding symbol of who we are and who we want to be.11 Is that a significant barrier?

LB: Another very good question. I think about it through the lens of my two daughters, who are 30 and 27. My coming of age was when I got my driver’s license and my first car. Their coming of age was their first cellphone, not their first car. Over the last 10 or 15 years, I’ve asked them what would you give up first—your cellphone or your car? And they say they’d give up the car before they’d give up their handheld device. Younger generations are expressing themselves in a much different way than just through car ownership.12

DP: What about some of the nightmare scenarios or unintended consequences of these new mobility innovations? Many cities are already dealing with an influx of ride-hailing vehicles, and you mentioned sending your self-driving car to pick up your dry cleaning. You’ve done detailed modeling on a number of cities looking at what shared autonomous vehicle adoption could look like. Any insights?

LB: At Columbia, we asked the question: “To make all the one- or two-person trips that automobiles currently make, how many tailored-design driverless electric vehicles would you need?” In city after city that we studied, you could replace all of the cars with a fleet that’s 15 percent the size and still make all the trips that are being made. In simulations, those vehicles were picking people up in two to three minutes. We had empty miles on the order of 5 percent of loaded miles. How? It has to do with population density. In cities like Ann Arbor, the probability that somebody is requesting a trip nearby just as I am being dropped off is pretty high. So a properly managed, optimized fleet would take a lot of cars out of the system.

Now, not everybody’s going to want to share a car. I accept that. Let’s say I’m at home cooking dinner for friends, and I realize I forgot to buy wine. I dispatch my personal robotic valet to the wine store to pick up the wine and come back. Would you call that an empty mile? I still would have made that trip driving my own vehicle. Today we have a system that is not optimized for fleet utilization. It just isn’t. But if you’re in the fleet business providing transportation services, a penny per mile really matters.

DP: We’ve largely been focused on the movement of people, but there are big changes happening with the movement of goods as well.

LB: There are really two big opportunities with goods movement, and we may see commercially viable businesses at meaningful scale sooner with goods movement than people movement. The first opportunity is in long-haul trucking. The most recent numbers from the American Trucking Association indicate that an average driver makes about 73 cents a mile, wages and benefits.13 That’s 47 percent of the cost per mile for over-the-road trucking. But not only would self-driving trucks save the 73 cents a mile—you have the opportunity to expand your daily service area because you don’t have driver work rules; an autonomous tractor could conceivably go 24/7 or 23.5/7 based on maintenance. That’s really important for e-commerce. And when you think about all of the parts on a tractor that are there because there’s a driver—the windshield, doors, side windows, seats, air-conditioning, heating, driving controls—it’s easy to convince yourself that the pile of parts you no longer need will cost more than the parts you’re going to add to make the tractor autonomous.

On the other side is package delivery, and it becomes even more interesting when the vehicles doing local package delivery can be the same vehicles you’re using for moving people around, and they can have different temporal patterns throughout the day. Maybe more of the packages are getting delivered at night. That might improve fleet utilization and congestion in urban areas.

DP: Speaking of urban mobility, we talked about autonomous vehicles and changes to the car. We’re also seeing other kinds of micro-mobility popping up: bikesharing, e-scooters, micro-transit vans. How do you see those fitting into a world of shared autonomous fleets?

LB: Well I think it’s that key word again: and. This isn’t about picking one winner to replace the more than one billion cars in the world. I’m very excited by all of those modes that are cropping up, and I think they’re going to be enhanced by the ability to seamlessly interface with them via apps. My long-term vision is for one totally integrated transportation system where you’re able to coordinate the movement of people and goods using these different modes in a seamless way. Deloitte is doing some important work on that, and I think that’s where this is headed.

DP: We’re pretty bullish on the idea of digital mobility platforms for cities.

LB: I think you should be.

DP: We’ve talked here about some pretty momentous changes unfolding. What does all of this mean for players in various industries? You’re in a somewhat unique position in that you’re a longtime veteran of the automotive industry and also been closely involved with one of Silicon Valley’s most prominent projects in this area.

LB: The original subtitle for the book Autonomy was “The race to build the driverless car and how it will reshape our world.” Our editor suggested we change the word race to quest. It seems like a simple change, but we kicked off the book with a sense of Silicon Valley versus Detroit, and by the end of the book it’s Silicon Valley and Detroit. The tech community has brought enormous insight and value; they have been the catalysts to bring this change about. But in those early days, those tech players were not fully appreciating how hard it is to design, engineer, validate, and manufacture a car at the scale at which the auto industry operates. What’s reassuring to me now is that the auto industry is working with Silicon Valley on their autonomous R&D. And Silicon Valley has turned to the auto industry for the kinds of vehicles they need to keep learning. So I think you’re seeing it as an and.

People ask me a lot, “Who’s going to win?” I think you’re going to see an ecosystem emerge not unlike the one that emerged with the internet. I’m not at all convinced that there’s going to be a single vertically integrated player that emerges from this that can do the driving system, the vehicle, the transportation system operations, the brand building, and all of that. I think you’re going to see quite a bit of codependency emerge. But those who become dominant in certain parts of that ecosystem could do really well.

DP: And does seem to be the theme of a lot of things happening in mobility. Let’s focus in on the automotive industry. If you were in an automaker’s shoes today, what do you think they should be doing to be ready for the future to best position themselves?

LB: They’re in a tough position because they have to continue to keep their legacy business viable while trying to pivot to these new businesses where they don’t have the core competencies and they don’t have infinitely deep pockets. That’s a really, really tough puzzle to solve.

With all of that said, autonomous vehicles won’t work without the vehicle, and the vehicles are hard to do. I think the big concern for the industry is that those vehicles are going to become more commodity-like. The engineering of the vehicle becomes much simpler down the road when it’s electrically driven, doesn’t require a human driver, and you get most of the crashes out of the system. And I don’t think the differentiator in the market is going to be chrome and fenders and fascia and the shape and the color. It’s going to be very much the overall experience that customers have, and that experience is going to be determined more by software and data and analytics than the traditional basis of competition in the auto industry. There are going to be some really tough portfolio decisions. Which parts of the traditional business do I want to hang with? Where is the profit? How do I pivot to this future of mobility that we’re talking about today? Can we attract the best talent to play in that race? Bottom line: The traditional players in the century-old roadway transportation system, including auto, energy, insurance, and finance companies, must get in front of the inevitable and make hard choices on “where to play” and “how to win” in the future.

DP: You’ve neatly framed the challenges of balancing today’s business with tomorrow’s needs. When you think about the future of mobility, what’s your greatest hope?

LB: My greatest hope is that we realize what I call the age of automobility—a convergence of autonomous electric vehicles deployed in transportation services—as fast and as soon as we possibly can with appropriate risk management. We shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that this is a once-in-a-century opportunity to simultaneously deal with 1.3 million fatalities worldwide per year on roadways, to deal with congestion, to deal with dependence on oil in transportation, to deal with the land use that comes with three parking spots per car in the United States, and to deal with equality of access. The deaths and injuries from crashes alone—it’s epidemic in scale. If I just created a cure for cancer and it held promise to save a lot of people with cancer but some could still die from the treatment, I think we’d get on with it; we’d find a way to manage that. We ought to look at autonomous vehicles as a cure for the roadway transportation epidemic and think about their deployment the way we test and deploy vaccines.

So I have this fixation: I want to get to the anticipated benefits. This convergence of technology and business models really can have a significant, meaningful impact and bring more transportation services at lower cost to more people. There’s an opportunity to have radically better services at radically lower consumer and societal costs.

Endnotes
  1. Lawrence D. Burns with Christopher Shulgan, Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car—and How It Will Reshape Our World (HarperCollins, 2018). View in article
  2. The Urban Challenge was a 2007 competition sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency in which teams had to construct an autonomous vehicle able to navigate an urban environment, including merging, passing, parking, and crossing intersections. DARPA, “Urban challenge,” accessed October 15, 2018.  View in article
  3. For instance, see Benjamin Zhang, “This study revealed the staggering potential of self-driving cars,” Business Insider, June 2, 2014. View in article
  4. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, “Number of U.S. aircraft, vehicles, vessels, and other conveyances,” accessed December 10, 2018. Number cited is for light-duty vehicles, short wheel-base, 2016. View in article
  5. Deloitte Global Automotive Consumer Study 2019, forthcoming. View in article
  6. “AUTOnomy” was a GM 2002 concept vehicle built around hydrogen fuel cell motors, drive-by-wire technology, and a skateboard-like chassis. See Burns and Shulgan, Autonomy. View in article
  7. AFP, “Germany rolls out world’s first hydrogen train,” France 24, September 17, 2018. View in article
  8. Kristin Lee, “Toyota’s new hydrogen fuel cell truck has a 300-mile range,” Jalopnik, August 1, 2018. View in article
  9. The Society of Automotive Engineers has identified five levels of vehicle automation, which the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) subsequently adopted. See the NHTSA, “Automated vehicles for safety,” accessed December 12, 2018. View in article
  10. David Roberts, “Here’s how self-driving cars could catch on,” Vox, May 9, 2018. View in article
  11. Robert Moor, “What happens to American myth when you take the driver out of it?,” New York Magazine, October 17, 2016; Brandon Tensley, “How will pop music adapt to autonomous cars?,” Slate, March 15, 2018. View in article
  12. Millennials may be only delaying car purchases rather than eschewing them, but their attitudes toward driving do seem distinct from those of previous generations. See Henry Miller, “How traveling by car is changing under millennials,” Matador Network, January 22, 2018; Mary Wisniewski, “Why Americans, particularly millennials, have fallen out of love with cars,” Chicago Tribune, November 12, 2018; and Kevin Drum, “Raw data: Kids and their cars,” Mother Jones, May 12, 2018. View in article
  13. American Transportation Research Institute, “An analysis of the operational costs of trucking: 2018 update,” October 2018. View in article

Digital Transformation, Dynamic Threats and Growing Accountability

March 1, 2019

By Mark Sangster, Chief Security Strategist at eSentire, Inc., contributor to SecurityMagazine.com

 

Businesses today accept the presence of cyber risks. In fact, 70 percent assume a business-altering event will occur in the next few years (FutureWatch Report), but often have a more difficult time identifying specific risks, key factors and mitigation strategies. Worse, the board or senior leadership often makes assumptions about the safety of the firms that is overly optimistic when compared to confidence ratings of security practitioners.

The difference between awareness and understanding is driven by the communication gap between the board and executives steering the business, and the security experts close to the problem. Both parties struggle to comprehend the other’s needs and responsibilities.

A firm’s risks stem from a handful of business aspects, including the firm’s participation in high-risk industries, its appetite for emerging technologies, and willingness to properly invest in targeted security practices. While this sounds obvious at first, it’s lost when the line of sight from the security practitioners to the board is over the horizon.

This article will explore board-level concerns, key drivers to invest in security, and how emerging technologies outpace the evolution of security technologies and services. The data presented in this article was collected in late 2018, through third-party research that surveyed 1,250 security executives, managers and practitioners. Data was collected from the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. Participants were equally represented across various industries and company sizes, ranging from less than 100 employees to 5,000 employee or more. Read the full FutureWatch Report.

Major Attacks Are an Assumption

Unanimously, business leaders such as the CEO, board members and technical executives (CIO) alike predict a major cyber-attack in the next two to five years. Over 60 percent of respondents assume a major event will occur. Interestingly, 77 percent of CEO and board respondents consider their organization prepared for such an event. As expected, technical leaders are approximately 20 percent more likely to predict an attack and are 10 percent less optimistic than their business peers in their organization’s preparedness.

Senior leadership fears operational disruption, reputational damage and significant financial losses over regulatory penalties as top consequences of a major security event.

While business leaders show a confidence in their firm’s ability to manage a security breach, the devil is in the details. Only 29 percent of respondents indicated that their high-value or high-profile information is not adequately protected. And two-thirds of respondents are not confident that their cybersecurity programs match their peers, nor that their programs are appropriately resourced.

The Cybersecurity Rosetta Stone

Boards and security practitioners still struggle to translate their concerns and objectives. Only one-third of business leaders are confident in their security executive’s ability to monitor and report on cybersecurity programs and 66 percent worry that these programs are not aligned to business objectives.

IT and security leadership sentiments echo this concern. Most organizations struggle to show the value of IT security spend to senior management, including status reporting difficulties. Aligning to enterprise risk management confounds over half of businesses, along with the ability to managed external risks with third-party vendors and the growing complexity of regulatory compliance.

On the positive side, progress has been made over the last few years. The CISO is no longer the least interesting person to the board, until they are the most important person.  Over half of respondents indicate their board is very familiar with the security budget (51 percent), overall strategy (57 percent), policies (58 percent), technologies (53 percent), and currently review current security and privacy risks (51 percent).  Moreover, line of sight from the CISO to the board is more direct. Forty-five percent of security officers report to the board or CEO, 33 percent continue to report to the CIO and a small handful (10 percent) report to a privacy or data officer.

Moreover, nearly two-thirds of security budgets are set to rise in 2019. Spend on the security side is still reactionary. While regulatory requirements is in the basement of the board’s concerns, it tops the list for security practitioners. A security teams spend is generally reactive to client demands, major technology purchases, a major security event or near miss, and the adoption of emerging technology.

Emerging Technology: A Double-edged Sword

IT and security teams find themselves in a difficult position between meeting the demands of the business to adopt emerging technologies that offer competitive advantage, while also carrying the burden of mitigating the risks that come along with new deployments.

Nearly three-quarters of respondents are currently using cloud services or plan to deploy cloud services in the next six months, with financial services, manufacturing and healthcare leading the adoption rate. Only law firms lag in their cloud adoption. Artificial Intelligence (AI), Internet-of-Things (IoT) and Industrial IoT (IIoT) top the list behind cloud.

Cloud security adoption is the priority, followed closely by identity and access management, threat detection and response, and endpoint detection and response. Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) moves beyond a compliance tool and now plays a role in the greater detection and response portfolio.

More than half of telecom, information technology, financial services and manufacturers invested in securing their cloud services. Similarly, financial services, healthcare and manufacturing also emphasize threat detection and response investments. These industries are equally investing in identity and access management as a response to a more distributed workplace. Again, law firms are significantly less likely to adopt these technologies.

Digital transformation is here to stay and brings with it a drive to always evolve and constantly change. Economics demand that vendors constantly improve and offer new features and technologies which outpaces our understanding of the associated risks. We focus on the benefits while assuming vendors have resolved the security issues. For example, cloud technology tops the list of security priorities today, but AI and IoT/IIoT are on track to surpass cloud as the primary risk concern in less than two years.

This challenge will only increase over the coming years as 5G facilitates a ubiquitous mosaic of always connected devices. Risk associated with emerging technologies becomes more concerning as adoption rates accelerate, compressing the time in which organizations and vendors can adapt and develop appropriate security controls and deploy protective solutions.

Most Susceptible to Risk: Law Firms, Transportation and IT

Law firms lead when it comes to risks associated with external actors and attacks and their ability to report status, show value and meet internal risk standards and regulatory requirements. Transportation and IT firms report higher than average levels of risk. Financial services tend to run just below industry averages across external attacks and internal or industry requirements.

Digital Transformation Outpaces Current Security Approaches

Digital transformation touches every facet of business operation and redefines how businesses engage with their customers. The emerging technologies underpinning this tectonic shift must constantly expand capabilities and adapt to survive in a competitive environment. Current security approaches are not fluid enough to keep pace with adoption of emerging technology and platforms.

Today, most firms identify their primary security posture as leveraging prevention technologies and device management. Firms that leverage a predictive security model such as threat hunting, machine learning, and device analytics reduce their risk by thirty percent. Less than one-fifth of firms identify as predictive. The trend is consistent across all industry segments with financial and healthcare services leading the charge and law firms lagging.

Firms adopting predictive security models are better able to identify never-before-seen threats and have engaged rapid response capabilities to reduce the risk of a business-altering event. Over the next two years, older preventative models drop to less than one-third, while predictive threat hunting will more than double to 40 percent. This trend correlates with the shift in business drivers away from regulatory dominance toward business-centric considerations such as operational disruption, reputational damage, and, of course, financial losses.

Interestingly, advanced firms are more apt to adopt emerging security technologies such as endpoint, threat detection and response, identity access management, and cloud security. Moreover, mature firms aggressively leverage SaaS and are more likely to adopt 100 percent cloud-based security services than firms using a device-management model. Outsourcing is a palatable alternative to recruiting and retaining threat hunting talent from a pool that cannot support the growing demand.

Digital Transformation, Dynamic Threats and Growing Accountability

Digital transformation continues to expand a larger and more fluid attack surface from the advanced methodologies used by well-resourced adversaries like organized criminals and nation-state actors. Regardless of industry, businesses operate in a world with ever-increasing accountability to protect their clients’ confidential information, adhere to state legislation, comply with privacy laws and meet the growing complexity of overlapping regulatory obligations.

This triad of risk demands that IT, security practitioners, and leaders align with business governance objectives, while senior leadership acknowledge their role in establishing expectations and providing resources to adequately protect the business, its investors, employees and customers.

We’ve left the world of prescriptive regulations as a measure of security end state. Many organizations recognize that the financial loss associated with operational disruption and reputational damage outweigh the penalties set out by regulators. In the future, organizations will likely move to a perspective driven by their clients. In this state, brand and reputation will form the barometer by which a company’s security performance is ultimately measured. Protecting the client will mean by extension, protecting their data and services, avoiding operational disruption and resulting financial losses.


Author: Mark Sangster, Chief Security Strategist at eSentire

Mark Sangster is an industry security strategist and cybersecurity evangelist who researches, speaks and writes about cybersecurity as it relates to regulations, ethical obligations, data breach incident response and cyber risk management.

Better Recruiting Through Social Media

Don’t just mess around on Twitter. You need a plan in place to get solid results.

Social Joy Duce, Partner-in-Charge, Human Resources Consulting Services at Sikich | Feb 14, 2019

 

Social media has become a near-constant feature in almost every American’s life, and for that reason it must also be major component in any successful talent acquisition strategy. Today, 69% of American adults use at least one social media site, according to Pew Research.

Manufacturers, meanwhile, are engaged in a no-holds-barred war for talent. Part of the problem is that they don’t know how to reach job candidates effectively anymore.

As a hiring tool, social media allows manufacturers to reach large numbers of prospective employees at relatively low cost. But leadership often underestimates the resources and planning required to execute an effective social media plan.

Fortunately, there are strategies manufacturers can deploy to establish a powerful social media presence that enhances recruitment efforts.

Find the Right People for the Job

Many manufacturing company leaders make a crucial early mistake by tasking their human resources teams to manage their companies’ social media pages. This can pose two major challenges:

1. HR professionals—while typically excellent at assessing candidates, improving company culture and ensuring compliance—often lack expertise in social media. Without the right people handling social media, companies can send mixed messages to the marketplace or even make mistakes that harm their brands.

2. The 24/7 nature of social media requires companies to provide nearly instantaneous responses to inquiries. Manufacturers that fail to respond quickly to a potential applicant can lose out to competitors that are immediately engaging with prospective talent online.

Consider recruiting skilled communicators from other departments to the social media effort. In some cases, it might be a good idea to form a larger committee of employees who can work together to plan and execute social media content. Human resources staff can certainly contribute to the effort, but they should not be the sole contributors to a manufacturer’s social media operations.

Play by the Rules

Often, companies extend their social efforts into applicant screening processes. In fact, according to CareerBuilder, 70% of employers will search applicants on platforms including Facebook, Instagram and Twitter before hiring.

But using social media as a screening tool often provides more details than a company needs to make its hiring decisions—such as religious affiliation, political views or sexual orientation. If a company makes a decision based on personal information that it mined from social media, it could quickly become vulnerable to a discrimination lawsuit.

To avoid this scenario, a manufacturer should create a written social media policy that outlines employee usage guidelines as well as HR screening guidelines that discourage problematic hiring practices. This policy should clearly prohibit hiring decisions based on personal information and beliefs that are irrelevant to the open position. It should also clearly detail the factors that are relevant when considering an individual for employment, such as professional qualifications and credentials, work experience, and facts gathered during the interview itself.

Start Planning Today

Manufacturers who are new to social media will want to start with a very targeted social media strategy, involving only one or two channels. The channels that they select should depend on the positions they seek to fill. LinkedIn may be a good place to reach management personnel, but it won’t be the best option when searching for entry-level plant workers, who are more likely on Instagram, Craigslist or Facebook.

No matter which social media channels they choose to use, manufacturers can’t afford to ignore Glassdoor, an online platform that features employee reviews of companies. Many applicants rely on Glassdoor for the “inside scoop” about a company. Though an employer can’t control the reviews current and former employees post on the site, it can actively manage its Glassdoor page and ensure the page features valuable information about company benefits and culture.

Once a manufacturer has developed a social media strategy that aligns with the company’s global mission, vision and values and puts it into action, the next step is to monitor results and continually tweak and refine the strategy as the company’s needs evolve.

Nobody is going to create the perfect social media plan on the first attempt. It takes time to master online activity and optimize messaging. As the social media team gains capacity, manufacturers can consider adding new channels to the mix to reach new talent.

The manufacturers that invest the time and effort to develop a robust social media strategy will put themselves in a position to recruit the best and brightest employees – and come out on top in the war for talent.

About the author

Joy Duce is partner-in-charge of the human resources consulting services practice at professional services firm Sikich.

 

How 5G Will Transform Business + Survey: Professionals eager and ready to deploy 5G

ZDNet Special Feature: How 5G Will Transform Business

5G will be popularized via telecom carriers and the marketing of wire-cutting services, but the biggest impact and returns will come from connecting the Internet of things, edge computing and analytics infrastructure with minimal latency.

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Part 2 of a ZDNet Special Feature: How 5G Will Transform Business

Survey: Professionals eager and ready to deploy 5G

In a recent Tech Pro Research survey, 85 percent of respondents either already use 5G technology or plan to adopt it in the future.

By Melanie Wolkoff Wachsman | February 1, 2019 = 17:15 GMT (01:15 GMT +08:00) | Topic: How 5G Will Transform Business

 

5G technology holds promises of enabling never-used-before technology, improving worker productivity and customer service, cutting costs, and more. Does 5G remain a pipe dream for businesses or an actual reality? Throughout December 2018 and January 2019, ZDNet’s sister site, Tech Pro Research surveyed 164 professionals to find out.

The results demonstrate the enterprise’s enthusiasm for this new technology. The majority of respondents (85%) are, in fact, already using 5G technology or have plans to adopt it sometime in the future. Survey respondents list introducing new technology such as analytics and IoT (54%), faster mobile transfers for more productivity (50%), and the potential for reduced data spending (27%) as reasons why their companies will use 5G.

Additional reasons for introducing 5G run the gamut from faster mobile transfers to the enjoyment of being on the ‘cutting edge’ of technology. Thanks to 5G, more than 56 percent of survey respondents will enable new technology that they could not use before. Better connections for IoT applications, improving content delivery and controlling remote devices top the list of upcoming plans for 5G. Nearly half of respondents (47%) expect to deliver better customer service, while 37 percent of respondents believe 5G will increase employee productivity on the road. A smaller number of respondents (18%) expect 5G to reduce data plan spending or other costs related to communications.

Roadblocks: What may hinder 5G adoption?

Enthusiasm for 5G does not necessarily translate to 5G deployment for all respondents. A slim margin of survey takers (10%) are not preparing or planning to adopt this new technology. According to those respondents, 36 percent are taking a ‘wait and see’ approach regarding 5G implementation, and 28 percent remain satisfied with 4G and see no reason to upgrade.

Further, many respondents share concerns about 5G availability. More than half (61%) said that the simple lack of 5G service to their area may hinder adoption. Another apprehension about 5G is that 67 percent of respondents don’t believe their existing infrastructure can handle the technology. This makes sense since many organizations still rely on on-premises legacy applications.

The above-mentioned roadblocks will not slow down the inevitability of 5G. Most organizations recognize the need to upgrade their infrastructure. More than 57% are looking at ways 5G can improve upon their existing technology. One-third (36%) are setting aside integration concerns and re-platforming legacy applications and cloud-based access. Only, 21 percent of respondents are not preparing for this new technology at all.

No matter what state of deployment your company is in regarding 5G, it’s here, and it’s ready to transform the enterprise.

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Special report: How 5G will transform business [free PDF]

This infographic contains more details from the research. For all the findings, download the full report: 5G Research Report 2019: The enterprise is eager to adopt, despite cost concerns and availability (available for Tech Pro Research subscribers)

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